The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Abiodun being renominated by the All Progressives Congress on 26 May while for the Peoples Democratic Party, two separate parallel primaries were held on 25 May with one primary nominating Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu—a former House of Representatives member—while the other primary picked Segun Sowunmi.[4][5] The national PDP recognized the Adebutu-won primary in July 2022; however, that primary was annulled by a Federal High Court on 28 September.[6] A Court of Appeal judgment on 28 November overturned the High Court ruling, reinstating Adebutu as the legitimate PDP nominee.[7]
Electoral system
The governor of Ogun State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Ogun State is a small, Yoruba-majority southwestern state with vast natural areas and significant economic growth but facing a lack of affordable housing, an underdeveloped agricultural sector, and brain drain.
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a reassertion of the state APC's control in the wake of a party rift that led allies of outgoing Governor Ibikunle Amosun to defect to the APM. Despite the defections, Abiodun won the gubernatorial race for the APC by a narrow 3% margin and the party won a majority in the House of Assembly. Federally, the APC swept all three Senate seats and won most House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Ogun was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 50% but swung slightly towards the PDP. During the 2019–2023 term, the majority of APM elected officials returned to the APC, giving the party boosts in both the federal and state Houses.
Ahead of Abiodun's term, his policy focuses included security, public service and local government reform, unemployment, education, infrastructure, healthcare, and agriculture development as well as a pledge to complete in-progress projects from Amosun's administration.[8][9] In terms of his performance, Abiodun was commended for proactive approaches to unemployment and the economy along with improving infrastructure in long-neglected communities along the Lagos State border but was criticized for the months-long delay in forming a cabinet, breaking a campaign promise to establish a university, and the failure to pay state government workers' co-operative deductions for over a year.[10][11][12][13][14] Abiodun also came over fire after the Pandora Papers leaks revealed that he was illegally involved in two British Virgin Islands-based offshore companies.[15]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][16]
All Progressives Congress
Analysts viewed the APC gubernatorial primary as a battle between factions within the Ogun APC, namely: the faction led by former Governor and current Ogun Central Senator Ibikunle Amosun, former Governor Olusegun Osoba's group, former Governor Gbenga Daniel's faction, incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun's bloc, and the group of Lagos West Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola. The two most powerful groups appeared to be the Abiodun and Amosun factions, the same groups from the 2019 primary where Abiodun prevailed and much of Amosun's faction temporarily left to run under the Allied Peoples Movement. Tensions between the factions reached a head in late 2021 when Amosun's faction held a parallel party conference and elected separate leadership to Abiodun's bloc; but national APC leadership later accepted the results of the Abiodun factional congress as legitimate.[17][18][19] Despite this setback, Amosun's allies continued their efforts to unseat Abiodun as Adekunle Akinlade and Ramoni Olalekan Mustapha looked set to challenge him until Mustapha joined Abiodun's faction in May 2022.[20][21] Akinlade, who lost the 2019 primary to Abiodun before defecting and losing in the general as well, continued his campaign with pundits casting the primary as a potentially defining matchup between Amosun and Abiodun.[22]
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[23] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[24] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[25][26][27][28]
In the days before the primary, Abiodun's opponents rejected the process that led to the election of delegates. They claimed their respective supporters were denied the opportunity to vote despite purchasing forms for the delegates elections. The aspirants rejected the final delegates list and criticized the appointed primary committee chairman as biased.[29] On the primary date, the six candidates contested an indirect primary at the MKO Abiola Stadium that ended with Abiodun winning unanimously. In his acceptance speech, Abiodun thanked the state and vowed to continue the work of his first term.[4] About a month later, a number of Amosun allies led by Akinlade defected to the PDP with Akinlade becoming the party's deputy gubernatorial nominee.[30] Around the same time, incumbent Deputy Governor Noimot Salako-Oyedele was renominated as the APC deputy gubernatorial nominee.
Analysts viewed the PDP gubernatorial primary as another contest between the two major internal party groupings, the faction led by former MHR Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu and the other faction being the remnants of late Senator Buruji Kashamu's supporters. While Adebutu spent 2021 and early 2022 preparing for another gubernatorial run, some in the Kashamu camp backed Segun Sowunmi's candidacy.[37]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[38] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[39][40]
The weeks before the primary were dominated by party infighting and lawsuits between the factions.[37] On the primary date, two separate factional primaries were held with one faction holding a primary at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library while the faction held a primary at the state Nigeria Union of Journalists secretariat in Abeokuta. While the NUJ secretariat primary was peacefully held and resulted in Segun Sowunmi's victory, the presidential library primary was marred by violence and gunshots as supporters of Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu and Jimi Lawal clashed over the delegate list; eventually Lawal walked out in protest and the election ended in Adebutu winning unanimously.[41][42][43] After the results were released, Lawal called for the primary to be annulled in a letter to the national PDP.[44] A few days after the primaries, the PDP National Working Committee issued a certificate of return to Adebutu but Sowunmi continued to contend that his primary is legitimate.[45] For his part, Adebutu began a reconciliation process in early June before picking Adekunle Akinlade as his running mate a month later.[46][30][47][48] Despite the process, Lawal continued with his lawsuit to annul the primary; the case was initially successful and the primary was annulled on 27 September by a Federal High Court based on irregularities in violation of the Electoral Act.[6] However, a Court of Appeal in Ibadan overturned the High Court ruling and reinstated Adebutu as nominee.[7] In January, a Supreme Court panel affirmed the Court of Appeal ruling in favor of Adebutu.[49]
As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' attempts to unify their parties in the wake of the party primaries. Both Abiodun and Adebutu started party reconciliation processes but both faced difficulties; the most major post-primary change was the sudden defection of Adekunle Akinlade and other allies of former Governor Ibikunle Amosun from the APC to the PDP with Akinlade emerging as Adebutu's running mate. Despite the PDP's poor showing in 2019,[a] analysts noted the political clout that the defectors held while the APC publicly recorded its indifference.[64][65][66] However, by August, the APC set up reconciliation efforts to prevent further defections but the moves were impacted by the Amosun-Abiodun feud publicly reigniting after Amosun alleged that the 2019 election was rigged against Akinlade with Abiodun replying that Amosun had "self-delusion."[67][68][69] For the PDP, observers noted that internal crises had negatively affected the party in every gubernatorial election since 2011 as the nominees of unrecognized factions continued to claim to be the legitimate PDP nominee.[70]
In September, while continuing to dismiss intraparty rival Segun Sowunmi's claim to the nomination, Adebutu and the PDP become controversial for a leaked document outlining their attempt to consolidate the alliance with the Akinlade-led defectors.[71] To secure the alliance, Adebutu and Akinlade had signed an agreement in June that had delineated the amount of appointed offices and nominations that would be filled by Akinlade group members.[72][73][74] In the wake of the leak, the PDP defended the document as a "memorandum of understanding" to facilitate more cohesive governance and campaigning but critics attacked the paper as an attempt by Adebutu and Akinlade to corruptly divide "positions and resources among their cronies."[75][76] These dynamics took a backseat to court drama a few days later, when a case from losing primary aspirants led a High Court to annul the PDP primary and order the party to conduct a new primary.[6] The PDP did not organize a new primary, instead appealing the ruling as Adebutu continued to claim to be the rightful nominee amid further counterclaims and court battles.[77][78] Also in early October, former Governor Amosun snubbed both Abiodun and the Adebutu-Akinlade ticket in revealing his endorsement of ADC nominee Olubiyi Otegbeye.[79][80]
In the wake of the deepening PDP crisis and Amosun's endorsement of Otegbeye, journalists reported in November that Abiodun could be on track for a comfortable victory due to the divided opposition and support from traditional leaders.[81] However, following weeks brought a massive shifts to the race as a Federal High Court ruling disqualified Otegbeye and all other Osun ADC nominees for the party's improper nomination processes while a Court of Appeal decision reinstated Adebutu as the legitimate PDP nominee.[82][7] Although Adebutu was reinstated (and later confirmed by a Supreme Court ruling in January), internal PDP opponents vowed to continue their efforts against him as pundits noted that the infighting could still pose a major risk for the Adebutu campaign.[49][83][84] By January, Otegbeye was also reinstated by a court appeal as legitimate nominee with pundits swiftly reviewing his renewed campaign and its prospects.[85][86][87]
The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Ogun State voted for Bola Tinubu (APC); Tinubu won 58.9% of the vote to defeat Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 21.4% and Peter Obi (LP) at 14.8%. Although the result was unsurprising as Ogun is in Tinubu's southwestern base and projections had favored him, the totals led to increased faith in Abiodun's chances due to Tinubu's wide margin of victory. On the other hand, gubernatorial campaign analysis reiterated the potential impact of the split in the former APC base between Abiodun and Otegbeye (who by this point was regarded as a major contender).[88] Despite the APC split, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Abiodun to win based on the "overwhelming victory" of Tinubu.[89] Other reports noted regional dynamics in addition to internal party crises.[90]
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[92] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[93]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[d] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[e] – Final day of the official campaign period
^2019 PDP nominee Buruji Kashamu only obtained about 10% of the vote.
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[94]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[95]
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, NOVEMBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 17 May 2022. Govermor [sic] of Ogun State, Dapo Abiodun, just like his Rivers State counterpart, Nyesom Wike, is making the list for the first time in the Bottom 5. He also gets a mention for his refusal to constitute a cabinet six months after inauguration. As we have argued elsewhere, the act is unhealthy for the growth and development of Nigeria's democracy.