2024 United States presidential election in Montana
2024 United States presidential election in Montana
The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
A sparsely populated Mountain West state though somewhat less conservative than its neighboring Great Plains states, Montana hasn't been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton did so in 1992 nor has it been competitive at this level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008 . It has been carried by Republicans by double digits since 2012. Donald Trump won Montana by 20.4% and 16.4% in 2016 and 2020 respectively. Considered a strongly red state, Montana is favored to be carried safely by the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia , New Jersey , New Mexico , and South Dakota .
Republican primary
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia , New Jersey , New Mexico , and South Dakota .
Green primary
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia .
Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Delegates
No Preference
495
100.00%
4
Total:
495
100.00%
4
Source: [5]
General election
Predictions
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Other / Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)
June 29 – July 1, 2024
570 (LV)
± 4.0%
56%
36%
8%
Torchlight Strategies (R) [A]
June 22–26, 2024
649 (RV)
± 3.9%
51%
35%
14%[b]
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [B]
June 11–13, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
57%
37%
6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [C]
June 3–5, 2024
500 (LV)
± 4.4%
54%
36%
10%
Emerson College [D]
February 26 – March 2, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
56%
35%
9%
SurveyUSA [E]
February 12–15, 2024
549 (LV)
± 4.5%
51%
29%
20%
Emerson College
October 1–4, 2023
447 (RV)
± 4.6%
49%
28%
23%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)
September 16–19, 2023
1,451 (RV)
–
54%
37%
9%
J.L. Partners
August 12–17, 2023
741 (LV)
–
51%
39%
10%
Echelon Insights
August 31 – September 7, 2022
320 (LV)
± 6.6%
49%
36%
15%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Independent
Cornel WestIndependent
Jill SteinGreen
Other / Undecided
Emerson College [D]
February 26 – March 2, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
49%
28%
8%
1%
1%
13%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Cornel WestIndependent
Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)
September 16–19, 2023
1,451 (RV)
–
51%
30%
7%
12%
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Joe ManchinIndependent
Cornel WestIndependent
Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)
September 16–19, 2023
1,451 (RV)
–
49%
28%
6%
4%
13%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Ron DeSantisRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Other / Undecided
J.L. Partners
August 12–17, 2023
741 (LV)
–
50%
36%
14%
Echelon Insights
August 31 – September 7, 2022
320 (LV)
± 6.6%
42%
35%
23%
See also
Notes
^ a b c d e Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ "Someone else" with 7%
Partisan clients
^ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
^ Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
^ Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
^ a b Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
References
^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats" . NPR . Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021 .
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision" . CNBC .
^ "Montana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024" . NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024 .
^ "Montana Presidential Election Results 2024" . NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024 .
^ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024" . Retrieved June 5, 2024 .
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings" . cookpolitical.com . Cook Political Report . December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Presidential Ratings" . insideelections.com . Inside Elections . April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings" . centerforpolitics.org . University of Virginia Center for Politics . June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 presidential predictions" . elections2024.thehill.com/ . The Hill . December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast" . projects.cnalysis.com/ . CNalysis . December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270" . CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024 .
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model" . The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024 .
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved June 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map" . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024 .
U.S. President U.S. Senate U.S. House (election ratings ) Governors Attorneys general Secretaries of state State treasurers Other statewide elections
Arizona
Georgia
Kentucky
Montana
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Utah
Washington
West Virginia
State legislative
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Special elections
Mayors
Alexandria, VA
Anchorage, AK
Austin, TX
Bakersfield, CA
Baltimore, MD
Baton Rouge, LA
Bridgeport, CT
Burlington, VT
El Paso, TX
Fresno, CA
Garden Grove, CA
Grand Rapids, MI
Honolulu, HI
Las Vegas, NV
Mesa, AZ
Miami-Dade County, FL
Milwaukee, WI
Phoenix, AZ
Portland, OR
Pueblo, CO
Raleigh, NC
Richmond, VA
Riverside, CA
Sacramento, CA
Salt Lake City, UT
San Diego, CA
San Francisco, CA
San Jose, CA
Stockton, CA
Tulsa, OK
Virginia Beach, VA
Wilmington, DE
Local
Chicago, IL
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles County, CA
Maricopa County, AZ
Multnomah County, OR
Orange County, CA
Portland, OR
San Francisco, CA
San Mateo County, CA
Washington, D.C.
States and territories Ballot measures
California
Florida
Idaho
Kentucky
Maryland
South Dakota