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Opinion polling for the 2024 Romanian presidential election

In preparation for the next presidential elections in Romania, which will take place on November 24 (first round) and December 8, 2024 (second round), various polling companies and organizations in Romania have already conducted a series of opinion polls to measure and track voting intention among the electorate in assembly. The results of all these opinion polls are shown in the annual tables below in this Wikipedia article.

First round graphic representation

First round

After the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Lasconi
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Diaconescu
Ind. 		Terheș
PNCR 		Orban
FD 		Others








INSCOP 7–12 Nov 2024 1.100 13.3 25.3 19.1 9.1 14.3 4.1 4.6 2.1 1.0 7.1[1]
BCS 7–10 Nov 2024 1.157 7.6 27.1 11.9 17.7 14.3 5.7 4.9 2.9 1.0 —
Sociopol[2] 4–8 Nov 2024 1.001 9.0 29.0 21.0 15.0 12.0 2.0 9.0 3.0 — —
CIRA 1–6 Nov 2024 1.150 9.0 29.0 17.0 19.0 16 1.0 — — 1.0 —
Verifield for USR 1–6 Nov 2024 1.064 13.2 25.9 21.2 8.5 15.7 2.9 4.4 0.3 1.1 6.8[3]
CURS[4] 30 Oct–5 Nov 1.067 9.0 28.0 17.0 17.0 12.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 1.0
Argument 18-23 Oct 2024 1.100 14.6 26.8 18.4 12.9 15.9 1.3 4.8 0.4 0.7 4.1
Sociopol[2] 14-18 Oct 2024 1.003 10.0 26.0 20.0 17.0 13.0 2.0 9.0 1.0 1.0 1.0[a]
INSCOP 11-18 Oct 2024 1.106 18.1 24.1 20.7 8.2 15.0 3.8 5.1 1.9 1.9 1.2[b]
CURS[5] 11-16 Oct 2024 1.006 15.0 26.0 17.0 15.0 14.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Verifield for USR 7-9 Oct 2024 1.009 17.2 23.4 19.8 6.2 17.1 3.8 7.6 3.1 0.7 1.1[6]
Sociopol[2] 7-9 Oct 2024 1.004 10.0 26.0 19.0 17.0 12.0 2.0 9.0 2.0 1.0 2.0[c]

Before the deadline for submitting candidacies to BEC (5 October 2024)

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		USR

[7]

Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others









INSOMAR-Avangarde 15–27 Sep 2024 1.100 15.0 30.0 11.0 17.0 7.0 14.0 2.0 — — —[d]
CURS 10–23 Sep 2024 1.067 16.0 29.0 11.0 18.0 7.0 12.0 — — — —[e]
INSCOP 11–16 Sep 2024 1.102 20.8 20.5 12.4 5.6 12.5 16.0 3.6 — — —[f]
FlashData 5–13 Sep 2024 1.100 16.0 24.0 19.0 13.0 8.0 13.0 — — — 7.0
Verifield 15–30 august 2024 1.793 17.8 21.9 14.9 5.9 12.9 16.3 1.8 — — 8.5
Sociopol 26 Aug-3 Sep 2024 1,005 14.0 26.0 19.0 10.0 9.0 14.0 1.0 — — —[g]
Verifield for USR Aug 2024 TBA 21.0 17.2 14.1 7.3 13.9 15.3 2.3 8.8
The Center for International Research and Analyses 24–30 Aug 2024 1,099 14.0 25.0 13.0 16.0 11.0 13.0 3.0 — — 5.0[h]
CURS 6–22 Aug 2024 1,067 15.0 32.0 14.0 19.0 5.0 11.0 — — — 4.0
ARA for Antena3 9–26 Jul 2024 1,009 20.0 28.0 10.0 6.0 12.0 12.0 — — — 14.0
CURS 18–26 Jul 2024 1,067 15.0 31.0 15.0 19.0 4.0 12.0 3.0 — — —
Sociopol 9–17 Jul 2024 1,002 15.0 25.0 19.0 12.0 9.0 14.0 1.0 — — —[i]
CURS 26 Jun–2 Jul 2024 1,067 17.0 30.0 13.0 20.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 — — 2.0
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 2024 1,100 26.7 17.8 11.2 11.9 13.4 14.3 3.4 — — 1.2
CSPS June 2024 1,013 24.0 16.0 28.0 6.0 4.0 17.0 5.0 — — —
INSCOP 20 - 25 May 2024 1,100 23.7 18.2 13.5 11.5 12.5 8.6 5.5 — — 6.4
AtlasIntel 5-9 April 2024 1,764 33.6 — 11.8 — 10.7 10.9 1.4 6.9 —
27 9.6 12.6 5 10.6 11.3 0.7 6.1 —
27.3 9.2 12.4 — 9.8 13.6 3.0 6.4 — -
INSCOP 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 2,000 26.0 24.0 13.0 12.0 8.0 — 3.0 — 9.0 -
INSCOP Research 16-24 jan 2024 1,100 26.5 18.9 13.3 11.4 14.0 5.9 3.6 5.1 - 1.3
Snap Market Research 3–8 Jan 2024 998 12 29 13 8 14 —[j] 5 — 10[k] 9[l]

Opinion polls with Geoană (independent) (2023)

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Lasconi
USR 		Orban
FD 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 2023 1,100 26.2 20.8 14.0 12.1 14.4 4.2 — — 2.4 3.9 — — 1.9
INSCOP 23 Oct–2 Nov 2023 1,100 27.7 21.8[m] 18.9 — 10.5 — 12.1 — 3.1 4.3 — — —
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 20.4 10.3 7.7 0.7 13.3 6.9 2.3 3.4 3.0 2.4 10.9 6.4 13.4
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 25.3 19.5 18.7 11.2 10.1 5.6 — — 2.7 4.1 — — 3.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 22.6 — 10.6 4.9 6.1 8.0 — 3.8 4.4 2.0 16.4 0.4 20.9[n]
14.6 6.2 9.7 4.6 5.5 4.5 — 5.1 2.9 5.1 16.9 0.5 24.2[o]
Election Nov 2019 — — 22.26 — 37.82 — 15.02 — 3.87 — — — —

Opinion polls without Geoană (2023)

Poll Date Sample Ciucă
PNL 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Simion
AUR 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Cioloș
REPER 		Orban
FD 		Hellvig
Ind. 		Others
INSCOP 20–27 Nov 2023 1,100 14.1 27.4 7.1 2.7 — 18.0 19.1 6.7 — — 4.9
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 8.0 13.3 7.4 2.1 15.7 10.4 5.9 5.3 5.0 2.9 24.1[p]
Election Nov 2019 — 37.82 22.26 15.02 3.87 — — — — — — —

Opinion polls with potential candidates (before 2023)

Poll Date Sample Cîțu

PNL

Orban

PNL

Ciolacu

PSD

Barna

USR PLUS

Cioloș

USR PLUS

Drulă

USR PLUS

Diaconescu

PMP

Kelemen

UDMR

Simion

AUR

Șoșoacă

NR/S.O.S.

Geoană

Ind.

Dragnea

PAINE/ApP

Others
Gazeta Civică[8] 15–31 Jul 2021 1,112 11.0 — 4.0 — — 22.0 — 5.0 — — 33.0 — 6.0
INSOMAR[9] 1–8 May 2021 1,030 — 12.03 16.1 22.00 13.4 — 8.3 — 14.2 4.0 — 6.6 3.37
INSOMAR[10] 8–11 Feb 2021 1,030 3.0 11.4 23.0 21.0 12.6 — — 3.0 17.0 — — 0.0 8.96
Election Nov 2019 37.82 22.26 15.02 5.72 3.87 0.34 — — 14.97

Second round

Geoană vs Ciolacu

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 2024 1,100 63.7 36.3
INSCOP 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 2,000 61.0 39.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 64.9 35.1

Geoană vs Simion

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Simion
AUR
INSCOP 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 2,000 75.0 25.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 71.8 28.2
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 63.5 36.5
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 69.5 30.5

Geoană vs Ciucă

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 2024 1,100 63.9 36.1
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 76.2 23.8

Geoană vs Kövesi

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Kövesi
Ind.
INSCOP 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 2,000 66.0 34.0
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 61.2 38.8
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 53.1 46.9

Geoană vs Lasconi

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 2024 1,200 66.2 33.8

Ciolacu vs Simion

Poll Date Sample Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 69.5 30.5
INSCOP 15–22 Sep 2023 1,550 58.8 41.2
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 54.1 45.9

Ciolacu vs Lasconi

Poll Date Sample Ciolacu
PSD 		Lasconi
USR
INSCOP 19 - 27 June 2024 2,000 58.0 42.0

Ciolacu vs Drulă

Poll Date Sample Ciolacu
PSD 		Drulă
USR
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 50.4 49.6

Ciolacu vs Ciucă

Poll Date Sample Ciolacu
PSD 		Ciucă
PNL
INSCOP 14 Feb -5 Mar 2024 2,000 63.0 37.0
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 51.7 48.3

Ciolacu vs Kövesi

Poll Date Sample Kövesi
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD
AtlasIntel 20–29 Oct 2023 2,000 58.6 41.4
AtlasIntel 27–30 Jan 2023 2,000 57.8 42.2


The first round among Romanian citizens from the Republic of Moldova

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Drulă
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Piedone
PUSL 		Others/

n/a










iDATA 22 – 26 Apr 1,006 15.0 3.1 2.4 3.4 4.8 0.7 1.0 5.5 6.1 58.0[11]
34.6 7.1 5.5 7.8 11.1 1.6[12] 2.3 12.7 14.1 —
CBS-Research 6 – 13 Apr 1,008 14.1 4.7 1.0 2.4 4.1 0.9 — — — 72.8[13]
51.9 17.3 3.7 15.0 14.0 3.3 — — — —

Trust in politicians

Poll Date Sample Geoană
Ind. 		Ciolacu
PSD 		Simion
AUR 		Ciucă
PNL 		Șoșoacă
S.O.S. 		Lasconi
USR 		Kelemen
UDMR 		Cioloș
REPER 		Kövesi
Ind. 		Others









INSCOP Research 19 - 27 jun 2024 1,100 33.4 23.6 18.0 21.4 20.2 21.3 8.5 - - -


Notes

  1. ^ Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 1%
  2. ^ Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0.9%
  3. ^ Călin Georgescu (Ind.): 2%
  4. ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 2%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 1%
  5. ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR): 2%
  6. ^ Cristian Diaconescu (Ind.): 4,5%, Cristian Terheș (PNCR: 2,0%, Ana Birchall (Ind.): 0,9%
  7. ^ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 7%
  8. ^ Ludovic Orban (FD): 1%, Cozmin Gușă (IND): 1%
  9. ^ Cristian Diaconescu (IND): 5.0
  10. ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  11. ^ In this scenario, USR, PMP, FD and REPER are supporting Kövesi as an independent candidate
  12. ^ Dan Chitic (BSR): 7%
  13. ^ With PNL endorsement
  14. ^ Don't know 11.1, invalid/blank vote 9.8
  15. ^ Don't know 13.1, invalid/blank vote 11.1
  16. ^ Don't know 13.0, invalid/blank vote 11.1

References

  1. ^ Călin Georgescu (ind.) 5.4%, Ana Birchall (ind.) 0.8%, Alexandra Păcuraru (ADN) 0.6%
  2. ^ a b c Polling institute that has traditionally overestimated AUR in polls. Exemple
  3. ^ Călin Georgescu (ind.) 4.6%, Ana Birchall (ind.) 1.2%, Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) 0.6%
  4. ^ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
  5. ^ Polling institute with strong ties to the PSD
  6. ^ Birchall 0.7 Altii 0.4
  7. ^ Cătălin Drulă in January, February, April and May 2024 Elena Lasconi since june 2024
  8. ^ "Vă prezentăm cifrele ultimului sondaj pentru Palatul Cotroceni" (in Romanian). Gazeta Civică | Cotidian Național de opinie și atitudine civică!. Archived from the original on 2021-08-04. Retrieved 2021-08-05.
  9. ^ "Opțiuni politice de mai | INSOMAR.ORG". insomar.org (in Romanian). Retrieved 2021-05-14.
  10. ^ "SONDAJ INSOMAR. Răsturnare de situație – pe cine vor românii la Cotroceni. Calculele care dau fiori clasei politice". Realitatea de Tulcea. 2021-02-12. [permanent dead link]
  11. ^ Niciunul dintre cei menționați – 15% Nu știu/Nu răspund – 41,6% Dan Barna – 1,4%
  12. ^ Dan Barna 3.2%
  13. ^ 44% dintre respondenți au arătat că nu au decis încă pentru cine ar vota la viitoarele alegeri prezidențiale din România, în timp ce 24,8% nu ar participa la vot. 4.0% NR
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